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FN-002 · Economic Structural Monitor · v1.9

Intelligence Curse Index

Fiscal decoupling from labour as AI scales. Six countries, 2018–2024.

IC = Corp Tax % − Income Tax % − Payroll Tax %
shifting moderate labour dominant intelligence-curse.ai ↗

Current Position
Tax Structure vs. IC Index
Revenue Breakdown (%)
IC Index — Selected Country
Cross-country snapshot —
IC Index by Country
Source data — all countries 2018–2024
Country
Year
Country Year Corp Tax % Income Tax % Payroll Tax % Corp Profits % GDP Top 10 Firm % Unemployment % IC Index
Sources and methodology
Corporate Tax, Income Tax, Payroll Tax

OECD Revenue Statistics — Table 1000 (tax revenue as % of total taxation). Accessed via Tax Foundation, "Sources of Government Revenue in the OECD" annual series (2020–2025 editions), using categories 1200 (corporate income tax), 1100 (personal income tax), and 2000 (social security contributions). Saudi Arabia uses IMF Government Finance Statistics estimates; Saudi Arabia is not an OECD member.

OECD Revenue Statistics  ·  Tax Foundation series

Notes on specific countries

Norway: Corporate tax share is abnormally high in 2021–2023 due to petroleum sector taxation (78% marginal rate on oil income). The 2022 spike reflects the energy windfall following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Norwegian government's resource rent tax. Norway's high corp share does not reflect a typical AI-driven fiscal shift — it reflects resource dependency.

Japan: OECD publishes Japanese revenue data approximately one year behind other members. The 2022 figure is interpolated from confirmed 2021 and 2023 values. 2024*: Social security contributions (T_2000) are not yet available from OECD for 2024; the payroll figure is extrapolated from the 2021–2023 linear trend and the total tax denominator reconstructed accordingly.

United States 2023: Income tax share fell sharply from 2022 (45.3% → 39.9%) due to a collapse in capital gains realisations following the 2022 market correction. Corporate tax share rose (6.5% → 8.3%) partly reflecting the Inflation Reduction Act's 15% corporate minimum tax.

Saudi Arabia: No personal income tax (income = 0%). Formal tax revenue is dominated by VAT (introduced 2018 at 5%, raised to 15% in 2020), corporate income tax on foreign entities (20%), and Zakat on Saudi companies (2.5%). Oil royalties and Aramco transfers are excluded from the tax base used here.

Illustrative fields

Corp Profits % GDP and Top 10 Firm Share are illustrative estimates not sourced from a single verifiable series. They are directionally plausible but should not be cited. They do not affect the IC Index calculation.

Unemployment is from OECD Employment Outlook and ILO ILOSTAT for Saudi Arabia. Figures are annual averages.

OECD Employment Outlook  ·  ILO ILOSTAT

Update cadence — why this stops at 2023

OECD Revenue Statistics is published annually in November/December, covering data through the prior calendar year. The Tax Foundation's annual summary (the most accessible cross-country extract) is typically published in May, using data from the previous November OECD release. The 2025 Tax Foundation edition (published May 2025) uses 2023 as its latest complete year.

OECD Revenue Statistics 2025 (December 2025) includes preliminary 2024 estimates for most OECD members, but Japan's 2024 data is explicitly unavailable and the full country-level breakdown is not accessible without a direct OECD account. This dashboard will be updated when the Tax Foundation 2026 edition is published.